The PSOE accounts to be able to govern 23J: steal six or seven seats from PP and Vox

The countdown to general elections on July 23 has already started. There are only a few days left for the appointment with the polls. The sensations in the ranks of the PSOE is that there is still “a party”. That the progressive coalition government led by Pedro Sanchez. An option that the vast majority of surveys see far away.

But the socialists manage their own numbers. It is true that its internal surveys failed in many territories on May 28 in the municipal and regional. In those elections, however, they partly blame the fall of the space to their left, that of United We Can. Sumar’s fortress, led by Yolanda Diazwill once again be key in the dispute for third and fourth place with Vox.

The internal polls conducted in Ferraz’s socialist direction do not reflect an insurmountable distance between the right and left blocs. The sources consulted by Public that either PSOE or Sumar need to recover in the last week of the electoral campaign only six or seven seats to PP or Vox indistinctly.

In the PSOE they point out that if the sum of PSOE and Sumar reaches 155 seats (the same that were obtained in 2019), the Government can be revalidated with the investiture support of other parliamentary groups. Especially PNV, EH Bildu or ERC.

Each seat will count a lot with this panorama. In Ferraz they point out that if the sum of PP and Vox remains at just over 160, there would be no possibility of external support from other groups to favor a conservative government.

Only the estimates of Sociological Research Center (CIS) come close to these numbers. They are the exception, although, at least before the face-to-face between Sánchez and Feijóo, the trend was for a rapprochement between the right and left blocks.

Latest Key Data study for Public, of July 8, placed the PP and Vox at 179 seats, which is an absolute majority. And to PSOE and Sumar in 136. Others tracking newspapers published in media such as The country (from the 40Db company), placed the two progressive forces at 143 seats on July 14 and the PP and Vox at 175.

In the estimations of the socialists, they highlight that there are several circumscriptions such as Cuenca, Lugo or Cantabria in which the last seats between blocks can be played for a handful of 1,000 votes.

For this reason, Sánchez decided to hold a rally this Thursday in the Cantabrian capital, Santander. The choice, taking into account the atypical campaign with very few acts, was not accidental. Nor will the event planned in Lugo for Thursday 21, one day before closing, which will be in the city of Madrid, and symbolic for the PSOE, of fuenlabrada.

They are not discarded improvisations of some other additional act, although the busy schedule leaves few gaps. Sánchez will spend the 17th and 18th in Brussels on the occasion of the EU-CELAC Summit. Before he will meet in Valencia and Barcelona on the weekend. In between, he still has a few interviews to do and others already done and that have to be broadcast.

Apart from the data, in the PSOE they consider that the image of the debate of seven held on Thursday on TVE was better than that of Monday with the face to face. “The right and the extreme right have once again reaffirmed the alliances that they already have in autonomous communities and city councils, and that they will repeat in the government of Spain if they have the opportunity. After tonight, no one doubts that Feijóo would make vice president Santiago Abascal“, they point out in Ferraz.

A new relevant opportunity will take place on the 19th with a three-way debate on TVE between Sánchez, Díaz and Abascal. Feijóo will not be there because he did not want to, between accusations of partiality to the public entity.

They consider in the PSOE that the popular ones are “nervous“That is why they insist on the matter of the most voted list. And that is why they try to “muddy” the campaign by questioning the solvency of voting by mail. “They go without brakes, but the citizenry is realizing it”, insist on the socialist leadership .

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