The president of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), Jose Felix Tezanosconsiders that after the Andalusian elections the electorate of the PP is very mobilized while in the PSOE the “campaigns of aggression and disqualification” that he blames on the “de facto powers” are making a dent, and that lead part of their potential voters to stand “at a somewhat distanced or even passive pre-election starting point,” but in any case he does not take for granted a victory for the ‘popular’ in the next general elections.
This is how Tezanos exposes it in an article entitled Political-pre-electoral crossroads published in the magazine Topicsof which he is director, and in which he maintains that, a year and a half before the general elections, the panorama is “complex and open” and “it still does not allow us to venture, with a minimum of certainty, how Spanish political and social life will be oriented” after those elections.
According to his analysis, the “potential sociological bases” of the left “outnumber those of the right by almost a third”, and they have the PSOE as their main force. For this reason, the socialists are the target of those campaigns by the de facto powers that seek to create “noise, confusion and discredit” so that their electorate “stays at home, resigned and passive.”
In your opinion, that “strategic anti-PSOE harassment” seeks to “sow doubts and uncertainties among progressive voters, arouse conflicts and contradictions in their ranks and among its various sectors – something in which some are quite adept – and discredit, lead to pessimism and defeatism”.
“Left-wing voters are not fools”
Tezanos believes that the majority of left-wing voters “they are not stupid” or “easily manipulated”, but assumes that these campaigns have their effect and are achieving that “a part of the PSOE electorate is located at a pre-electoral starting point that is somewhat distanced, or even passive”. Proof of this is that there are 5% of voters who sympathize with Pedro Sánchez’s party but who say they are not going to vote for him.
According to the president of the CIS, a part of the voters of the PSOE are located in a distant or even passive point
The electoral future also depends on what happens to “the political spaces to the left of the PSOE. Without expressly naming Yolanda Díaz’s Sumar, the president of the CIS points out that “the sociological and political complexity” of that sector “is going to have many theoretical and practical difficulties to achieve the effective sums of votes and seats that facilitate achieving more consistent parliamentary representations with the weight that certain ideas and criteria have in Spanish society as a whole”.
Regarding the right and the center right, Tezanos points out that the “recent tectonic movements have not yet settled into a stable scenario.” He assumes that, “for the moment”, the “most established” party continues to be the PP, despite the fact that he believes that a “brand strengthening operation”, which he launched with the advance elections in Madrid, Castilla y León and Andalusia, “does not It turned out as well as I wanted.”
Ayuso’s “dysfunctional” leadership
It has not been so because in Madrid “have created an alternative leadership as powerful as it is dysfunctional“in the figure of Isabel Diaz Ayuso, whose strategy of confrontation, warns, “is not naive, capricious and spontaneous as some believe.” The “radicality” of the Madrid president, in her opinion, does not go well with that of the Castilian and Leonese, Alfonso Fernandez Manuecoto which he attributes “ambiguities” and “lack of charisma”, nor with the “different manners” of the Andalusian Juanma Moreno.
“Ahead of the next general election, the PP will have to clarify whether its general line it is Ayuso’s, Moreno Bonilla’s or Fernández Mañueco’s. Or a new one, more ambiguous and diverse at the same time, that can accumulate and understand the previous three,” writes Tezanos.
Tezanos clarifies that the PP will have to clarify its general line
In any case, the surveys indicate that the PP “has managed to activate practically all of its potential electorate”, which does not imply that it is guaranteed a sufficient future majority of seats to form a government.
Of Citizens, it takes for granted that is “another failed response from the center“as the UCD, the CDS and the UPyD were before, and attributes it to the right-wing of their leaders. Regarding Vox, Tezanos predicts that “the tendency of a large part” of his electorate, “it may be to return to the fold from which they came”that is, to the PP.
That, he points out, supposes a stimulus for the leaders of the PP to toughen their speeches in order to recover the voters who lost “in moments of bewilderment and confusion of leadership”, in reference to Pablo Casado.