The Feijóo effect, which returned the PP to direct demographic struggle with the PSOE, seems to have deflated almost two months after the arrival of the former president of Galicia at the national leadership of his party. The rise of the Conservatives in the polls had been explosive during the month of April, but has now slowed down.
According to the latest study of Key Data for Public, the situation of technical tie continues between the PSOE and the PP. The Socialists note in the polls the wear and tear of being in the Government but, although they remain downward (if their general range since the beginning of the legislature is taken into account), they resist.
those of Pedro Sanchez obtain in this study an intention to vote of 26%, which would be worth around 105 seats. In their bracket, for several months last year, they reached around 28% in voting intention, the same percentage of votes that in the December 2019 elections earned them 120 seats.
In the case of the PP, the arrival of Alberto Nunez Feijoo to the Presidency of the political formation caused a notable growth last month that stagnated in the May study. The Conservatives obtain a voting intention of 25.6%, which would be worth around 103 seats (a figure that is well above the electoral result of Pablo Casado in 2019, when he achieved 20.8% of the vote and 89 seats in the Congress of Deputies).
Although the change in the leadership of the PP has resulted in a very important rise, it is not the highest that the organization has experienced in the polls since the beginning of this legislature. The greatest growth occurred with Paul Married in the summer of last year, after Isabel Diaz Ayuso won the elections and became the president of the Community of Madrid.
Then, the PP managed to outperform the PSOE in the demographic studies during most of 2021 (between May and December) and reached its peak between August and September, reaching a vote intention of almost 29%. On that climb the conservatives weighed down the growth of Vox and at the end of the summer the extreme right barely obtained 15% in estimated votes (the same results as in the 2019 general elections).
Although the growth after the arrival of Feijóo in April is important, in May it slows down and the PP stagnates before a Vox that grows back. The extreme right obtains an estimate of the vote of 19.2%, which would be worth around 69 seats.
Paz Alvareztechnical director of Key Dataexplains that “the arrival of Feijóo, closing the PP crisis, allowed the Popular Party to recover its positions from last summer and challenge the Socialist Party for leadership in voting intentions. However, that rapid rise that is observed immediately after the congress of the PP, it stops”.
“The first messages of the popular leader do not penetrate among the voters who hesitate between the Popular Party and Vox,” adds Álvarez. In his opinion, “probably the relationship with Vox and the position on issues such as the territorial organization of the State, migration, feminism… continues to be a critical point in Feijóo’s position and in the future of the PP, just as it was for Casado and his team, ideological questions that will place the PP in direct competition with Vox or in a position to capture the votes of the center “.
United We Can continues in a negative trend and decreases in voting intention very gradually in the polls. In this study, the confederal space obtains an estimate of the vote of 11%, which would be worth about 27 seats in Congress (eight less than it currently has).
“The Socialist Party maintains its leadership position, although weakened by the exercise of the government in very difficult circumstances. The same thing happens with its government partner, United We Can, which, while waiting for proposals like the one announced by Yolanda Díaz, does not seem to invest the downward trend through which, gently but steadily, it has been sliding for months”, explains the technical director of Key Data.
By blocks, the right of PP, Vox and Ciudadanos (which does not go beyond holding a single seat for Madrid) would be above 172 seats, so they could have within their reach an absolute majority with minority parties such as Navarra Suma. The current coalition government together with the investiture partners would be about 160 seats.