The polls shoot Moreno for the Andalusians, who could obtain more deputies than the entire left together


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The PP of Juanma Moreno would win the next election Andalusia with 44 deputies, but it is far from the absolute majority, which is in 55 seats, according to the polls. To make a government, he must have, in one way or another, inside or outside his cabinet, with Vox, his parliamentary partner of these years, with whom the PP has just formed a coalition Executive in Castilla y León. The results offer only that possibility of government and another one, this remote and unexplored: an agreement of some kind with the PSOE.

Moreno was already unable, despite the predisposition of the new leader of the Andalusian Socialists, Juan Espadas, to close – after vox decided not to support it – with the socialists the budget for the year 22, which has finally led – deferred, yes – to the early call of the Andalusians. And the Government of Castilla y León also greatly complicates the option of an understanding between the PSOE and the PP.

Moreno would win the Andalusian regional elections on June 19 with 44 deputies and 33.5% of the votes -13 points more than what it got in 2018-, but today it would be missing 11 seats so as not to have to coalesce with any other party, according to the conclusions of the Key Data study, which analyzes data (in the graphs that accompany this text they are complete) from the last large public and private surveys in the country to Public.

Voting intention of the latest ‘Key Data’ study for ‘Público’. —KEY DATA

Your current governing partner, citizens, also collapses in Andalusia, similar to what happened in the Madrid and Castilian-Leonese elections. “The management of the first coalition government in this land, which has not shown internal disputes, as other PP-Cs governments did, makes the polls assure its presence in the Andalusian Parliament; but there will be only two seats, insufficient to reissue the PP-Ciudadanos government”, analyzes Paz Alvarez, the technical director of Key Data. Citizens achieved 21 deputies three and a half years ago.

Vox had its first great success in the Andalusian elections of December 2018, which changed the Andalusian political scene and had the consequence that, for the first time, the PSOE will not govern in this autonomous community. On that occasion, Vox limited itself to supporting the PP-Ciudadanos government from the outside. The Key Data estimates that the extreme right would now obtain 20 seats in the Andalusian Parliament, eight more than in 2018.

For Álvarez, “next June, the party of Santiago Abascal and Macarena Olana, with Ciudadanos disintegrating and the left divided, will exceed the results of 2018 and will be in a position to decide the government of Andalusia and, therefore, be part of that government, as it is already doing in Castilla y León”.

Key Data Andalusian elections 19J.
Estimation of seats by provinces from the latest ‘Key Data’ study for ‘Público’. —KEY DATA

However, “this time the scenario may be somewhat different, more similar to that of Madrid, as long as the PP gets more votes than the PSOE, UP, AA and Andaluces Rise up together”, analyzes Álvarez. “In that case, Vox’s abstention would suffice, so Moreno Bonilla could try to form a government alone, as Isabel Diaz Ayuso in Madrid. Of course, Vox is now more demanding than in May and it is necessary to refrain, “he adds. The Key Data estimate is as follows: 44 for the PP and 43 for the sum of the entire left.

The left

On the left, John Swords It maintains the 33 seats that the PSOE obtained in 2018 with the leadership of Susana Díaz. The implosion of the Andalusian left and the disunity will have its consequences. Forward Andalusia it separates from United We Can and in those circumstances Teresa Rodríguez will obtain only two seats, and United We Can, 8. Therefore, they lose seven seats going separately compared to 2018 when they concurred as a coalition.

At the moment, also competing in this segment of the electorate is Andaluces Levantaos, a coalition that brings together Más País Andalucía, Andalucía Por Sí and the Andalusian People’s Initiative, which, as of today, will not obtain representation in Parliament. More Country, however, is negotiating these days an agreement with United We Can, Equo and other smaller ecological and Andalusian parties that avoid the dispersion of the vote and have the capacity to create illusions. May 5 ends the deadline for them to resolve doubts or finally go separately.


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