After spending a lifetime traveling the world, one comes to the conclusion, when traveling to the remnants of the Mongol and Ottoman empire, that still living in many respects in the Middle Ages. They will have the internet and nuclear weapons, but if we analyze one by one all these countries of what was the USSR, we observe repeating patterns. Power is the product of a collusion between oligarchs that they always end up killing each other; the institutions created by themselves are not respected, nor are the judicial processes guaranteed, individual rights are trampled, the divine inspiration of the regime allows the systematic justification of the crime against the opposition, public resources are managed by the hierarchs as if they were private and the people continue to suffer as they did in the time of Peter I, sent to their deaths for greater glory and wealth by the tsars, then by the communists and now by the Russian nationalists. It’s all part of the same scheme.
The development of the war in Ukraine is the palpable demonstration of a story that could have happened in the time of Genghis Khan or Mehmet. Putin’s private army directs the war and looting of Africa or Ukraine financed by the state budget. Ultimately, war is big business for Putin and his gang, and Prigozhin. The expression conflict of interests it is clear that it does not have Russian origin.
Since the Supreme Leader does not trust much of your cook, who was already showing ways as a juvenile delinquent, hires another tribe, Kadirov’s Chechens, who pretend to be the counterweight to the first. But these fidelities are not based on patriotism or compliance with military regulations, but rather are based on how much money and power is doled out. The same type of agreements that had to be reached in the Middle Ages before storming each city, when private armies had to agree on the looting and distribution of the booty.
The summary of what has happened in the last seventy-two hours is simple: the head of the main private army is sorry for his disposition at the front, for the cruelty of his men, for his relationship with the Russian oligarchy, with enough power to impose their law on the big boss, that is Putin. He has had the audacity to abandon the front, march to Rostov, win the support of military leaders and advance three hundred kilometers through Russia in the direction of Moscow without resistance. It sounds like science fiction but it has happened, without the huge theoretical Air Force or that great army being able to do anything to prevent it. This shows that formal institutions do not work in Russia, a premeditated action of power to benefit the plundering group. That is why there are no armed forces in Russia: they have been stolen.
For those who believe that this nightmare is over, they are very wrong, just started.
If either Prigozhin or Putin is not assassinated by the other, which suits the way these barbarians act, we will quickly see how Putin’s cook turns his boss into an ingredient in his new dish. If he has achieved the removal of Shoigu and Gerasimov, he already knows that he will be able to obtain what he wants.
I would almost bet that Prigozhin’s move has a lot to do with the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus, a country much more like the Afghanistan of the Taliban than Russia.
Belarus, which already has nuclear weapons, may be an infinitely greater threat to world security if it falls, as it will, under Prigozhin’s control. It is very possible that this was his immediate objective: have a huge country for their men and with their nuclear weapons. It would be an infinitely greater threat than Afghanistan harboring al Qaeda. If we take a look at the activities of these criminals, including tampering with the Western electoral system, buying affiliated media, hiring influencers, etc. and give it a nuclear-armed country less than two thousand kilometers from the whole of Europe, we will have created an unprecedented nightmare.
Putin is already history, he will negotiate and he will be able to continue in power, but Russia as a state has already died, has collapsed. The state has collapsed in an environment much worse than in 1991.
For the West, the outlook could not be more bleak. Maintaining a strong Putin in Russia is the best guarantee of having an interlocutor, although we know that it would be like negotiating with Hitler, but of course, he would never have allowed Heydrich to take power in Germany.
The war in Ukraine is already a bygone and insignificant chapter of this escalation. I imagine that the Russian soldiers will be in retreat, because what is the point of attacking a country without knowing in whose name they are doing it, if they cannot trust their commanders, if they have realized that they have been the human meat for the oligarchs have lined up? They deserve to go back to Moscow and shoot all the hierarchs, because in the 21st century such carnage should never have occurred.
For Zelensky, it is a relative victory. He remains in power while his enemies catch private planes on the run and this is a great victory. His army is faced with undersupplied and demoralized forces and that they must be returning to their homes as they did in October 1917, when the Russian army at the front with six million men disbanded itself and the men returned home on foot, without weapons. The only limit that Ukraine has on the Front is that imposed by its logistical coverage, but today it is feasible to think that Ukraine will be able to recover all the occupied territory in 2014. But even if this is possible, the problem will be much greater.
We are faced with a medieval state that does not understand our language, without defined powers, without functioning institutions, in which the more criminal and delinquent one is, the more possibilities of reaching power. If they had spears and horses like the Mongols, they would be a relative problem, but with six thousand nuclear warheads, we must begin to seriously consider that we either nullify this threat outright or the world under Prigozhin, or anyone else who comes in his post, will know nuclear war.
I have no doubt that the whole butcher’s move is to seize Belarus as an intermediate step to having full power in Mother Russia and begin the reconquest of the lost or dreamed empire that they never had He will use all the forces of evil, immoral and lethal that are necessary, because what we are going to experience would be as if Hitler in 1943 had obtained the atomic bomb.