The left begins the campaign with the challenge of mobilizing its electorate to avoid the debacle that the polls draw

The Andalusian election campaign kicks off this Friday with a very defined political map for weeks, when the current president of the Board and PP candidate, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, decided to call the elections for June 19. In this context, the left starts with the main challenge of mobilize your electorate to avoid the debacle predicted by the polls.

Moreno Bonilla starts this 15-day period entrenched in the first position, according to the pre-election study of Key Data for Public. In this sense, unlike what happened in Castile and Leonthe pre-campaign has not undermined the voting expectations of the popular ones who, despite add more than the left threeremain far from the 55 seats necessary for the absolute majority, so they need at least one abstention from the extreme right.

The PP candidate would win the elections by obtaining 47 seats. In this case, the main unknown is how he will obtain the necessary majority to be sworn in as president, since Vox has advanced that he will not give his votes in exchange for not having a chair in the San Telmo Palace.

“In the end it will depend on how Vox negotiates because if the PP adds more than the entire left, so that Moreno Bonilla does not come out invested, Vox has to vote against it, and that would be very rare,” he stresses. Paz Alvareztechnical director of Key Data, who also recalls the high media presence of the PP in the last two months.

In this line, the celebration of the National Congress of the PP in Seville stands out, which meant the enthronement of Alberto Nunez Feijoo at the head of the party and the end of the disputes between Génova and Sol. That presence continued with the celebration of the Madrid congress at the end of May that culminated in the coronation of Isabel Diaz Ayuso. Likewise, and in an electoral key, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla He has displayed a “very Andalusian” pre-campaign, with little presence of national leaders or barons from other communities and little presence of his party’s initials.

Voting intention for the Andalusian elections, according to the latest study by ‘Key Data’ for ‘Público’. Key Data

All these factors have served to consolidate the popular vote, which would absorb a good part of the electorate of Cs. In fact, it would keep the 21 seats that Inés Arrimadas won in the 2018 elections and recover old voters who previously opted for Vox. Álvarez highlights that, despite the fact that most of the Cs vote goes to the PP, another small part stays in Cs, 25% is among the undecided, and another goes to other parties, especially Vox and the PSOE .

Therefore, according to the latest study Key Datathe formation of Juan Marín would stay out of Parliamentgoing from a government party to an extra-parliamentary party, and Vox would add seven more seats compared to the current 12, that is, the extreme right would achieve 19 seatsbeing able to influence the governability of this community.

The left, far from obtaining the results of 2018

In the left-wing bloc, highly accused by the current demobilization, the main candidate, the socialist John Swords It would not equal the results obtained by Susana Díaz in 2018, when with 33 seats and almost 28% of the votes, she won the elections, although she was unable to form a government. Thus, the formation of the former mayor of Seville, not very popular outside the city, would get 32 ​​seats.

In the case of the parties to the left of the PSOE, the projection in the polls is not very different. Forward Andalusia Nor would it match the results obtained in 2018, when it managed to group together a good part of the left-wing formations and concur with a single candidacy, which obtained 17 seats.

In fact, with the current formula, divided into two competing candidates, it would lose six seats in the June 19 elections. For Andalusia, which was born already touched by a failed agreement, with a forecast of nine deputies, has experienced a slight improvement in the pre-campaign and would be the most successful option, while Adelante Andalucía, Teresa Rodríguez’s party, would only scratch two seats (one for Cadiz and another for Seville).

06/02/2022.- Estimation of seats by provinces for the Andalusian elections, according to the latest study by 'Key Data' for 'Público'.  —Key Data
Estimation of seats by provinces for the Andalusian elections, according to the latest study by ‘Key Data’ for ‘Público’. Key Data

In addition to the demobilization of the left-wing bloc (everything seems to indicate that participation will not exceed 60%), “fundamentally the PSOE”, Paz Álvarez underlines its division into three candidates, which harms this spectrum and subtracts seats in its entirety with respect to the 2018 elections, in which the left reached 50 seats. “A united and unique candidacy would improve the result,” she blames.

Regarding the future of this period prior to the elections, Álvarez warns that 15 days in politics is “a long time”, although according to what has been shown in the previous weeks, with some candidates with “little rough profile”, despite the head of the Vox list, Macarena Olona, “it doesn’t look like it’s going to be a polarized and angry campaign.” “It has been shown that the strategy of confronting Vox does not go well for the big parties,” adds the director of Key Data.

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