The Italian geopolitical puzzle: the consequences of a Meloni victory

Giulio Andreotti -seven-time Italian prime minister- looked the other way when the CIA meddled between the Christian Democrat Aldo Moro and the communist Enrico Berlinguer to prevent the latter from coming to power. The story ended with Moro in the grave killed by the Red Brigades, and everything changed forever. Andreotti himself, nicknamed Il Divo, was the one who said this at a Unity Party: “I love Germany so much that I prefer two”. He wanted to say, because he had to explain himself, that to speak of reunification meant to discredit the Soviet possibilities to work on détente. He picks it up his own book i diari segreti, published in 2020 by Solferino publishing house. A perfect manual to understand the difficult Italian framework beyond the Alps.

After September 25, the country of the boot is preparing to experience a new geopolitical scenario, although to do so it will have to unite the tiles of the internal mosaic after elections that are being released with two important novelties: one parliamentary reduction of 30% (400 in the House and 200 in the Senate) and the possibility of voting with 18 years of age (for the Senate it was previously necessary to have 25). “Two great internal hypotheses are opened, which will logically determine international relations,” he warns Fabrizio Marontaa journalist from the prestigious geopolitical magazine limes, directed by Lucio Caracciolo. “It is unlikely that the right will not win. What is really interesting is how it wins, and that is where the League comes into play. Salvini’s party has two souls, one from Lombardy and the other from Veneto. The first, once a bastion of Umberto Bossy, she loves him. The other hates him, because she prefers Luca Zaya“, he clarifies while trying to argue that Matteo tried to make a national party, but Venice refused. “This means that if things go wrong for Salvini in the vote, it is possible that Meloni will govern with Forza Italia and some moderates.”

A Forza Italia flag flies under the sky of Rome. Julio Ocampo

The problem that the country could have at the international level is if Salvini obtains a good electoral result. In that case, the head of the Northern League could become Putin’s Trojan horse in the heart of Europe. Then it would be very complicated to carry out the guidelines agreed by Draghi, in good shape until his last day in office: distance himself from Russia and Orbán. “That is why it has signed energy agreements with Algeria, Egypt and Mozambique. That is why the gasifier will be built in Piombino, precisely to blow up relations with Moscow. He thinks that, after Germany, we were the ones who took the most gas from there.”

This is precisely what the premiere in office: quantitatively and qualitatively increase aid to Ukraine and open several fronts in the entry of gas. “This makes it impossible, even with Meloni in Palazzo Chigi, for Italy to be Hungary. It will be pro-NATO, without a doubt,” he exclaims. Otherwise, a different landscape would lead to skyrocketing debt and market-inflicted harakiri. Because, as Maronta says, “Meloni can be argued, but she’s not stupid.” And she has known how to compact a block to hit her opponent in the chin, disintegrating it into PD with Letta, 5 Stars with Conte, and Terzo Polo with Renzi and Calenda. Those three parties could be the opposition bloc unless the gambler Renzi determines the right-wing majority by giving it seats in case it does not reach self-sufficiency in the Senate. Everything is possible; nothing is unlikely. Even the presence of Sergio Mattarela. One more time.

far right rhetoric

Italy always has various costumes for these dances. Giorgia Meloni will not be Draghi in Italy, but outside of it. In case of final victory, his rhetoric will continue to be similar to that of Vox, to Hungary, but it is likely that it will not distance itself from the Atlantic organization, something on which Simona Colarazi, an Italian journalist and historian, disagrees. “Italy belongs to the G7, but I am convinced that her rhetoric will not be pro-Europe because the right is in favor of autocracy. She has nothing to do with fascism, but her idea of ​​politics – she does not hide her feeling with Trump – doesn’t help our continent.

Giorgia Meloni with her campaign slogan.  Ready?
Giorgia Meloni with her campaign slogan. Ready? Julio Ocampo

Although it is true that his vein against globalization and capitalism was whitening as it went up in the polls, the more than likely premiere it will not abandon its language against abortion, divorce and civil marriage. In addition, she will harangue for the family and, according to Limes’ signature, “could favor conscientious objection in doctors.” As if that were not enough, he adds, he will continue with his personal crusade against illegal immigration, a field where Matteo Salvini, charged in the Open Arms trial, would come into play again, for which he could suffer a sentence of up to fifteen years in prison. jail. “The Salvini decree did not work when he was minister. He closed the maritime borders (8,000 kilometers of coastline), but we also have the Balkan ones. He declared war on the NGOs, and thus the deaths increased. He instrumentalized the issue of immigration, forgetting that the northern industrial class that votes for him needed migrant labor. It’s a contradiction,” he says.

The nth. The last one that led him to conquer the south because he had literally lost the north, which was being hostile to him. Sicily, Apulia, Calabria… A less educated south, afraid of the landings in Lampedusa. Poor, with a lot of unemployment and a huge brain drain. That’s where Salvini fell in, who never had the ability or the charisma of Bossi. And that is a menhir that he has been carrying for years, and that could be decisive if he enters the government again with Forza Italia and Hermanos de Italia. Of course, his excessive ego sends him siren songs from the pulpit of Palazzo Chigi.

Schism in the Church

The economy, the internal relocation of the pieces of the puzzle, diplomatic relations outside the borders and -in short- geopolitical ties will be important in the coming months with the new executive, who will also have to attend to what is happening on the other side of the Tiber, where is it? The Vatican. Always sibylline, which is and is not.

During the week there was a meeting in Matera of the Italian Episcopal Committeeled by Cardinal Zuppi. They did not ignore the elections next Sunday, protagonists implicitly in a statement denouncing “the constantly increasing poverty, the demographic winter and the energy crisis that Italy is experiencing, with little work for young people.” In addition, they did not overlook the responsibility that the deputies and senators who will be elected this September 25 will have, since they will have to face the issue of “a better reception, protection, promotion and integration of migrants, in addition to a reform in the bureaucracy and the electoral law.

A man instrumentalizes the issue of immigration in Italy.
A man instrumentalizes the issue of immigration in Italy. Julio Ocampo

An ordeal that surely no politician overlooked, whether or not they end up sitting on the highest ministerial scepter in Piazza Colonna, guarded by the majestic obelisk of Marco Aurelio. Not to mention the orthodox siren songs coming from the Kremlin, where there could be a major schism between Putin’s Russia and Pope Francis, who on more than one occasion has condemned the war. It is one more example to explain the difficult framework that is presented to Italy outside its borders and the difficult coexistence, paradoxically, that Salvini and Meloni could have, who sealed his last campaign chapter in a working-class neighborhood of Naples: Bagnoli. A red redoubt to which he asked to work more and less subsidies, surrounded by protests to the cry of “Bella Ciao”. A busy October is here, and not exactly red.


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