MADRID, Aug. 31 (-) –
The Ibex 35 has closed August with a fall of 1.41%, reaching 9,505.9 points, after two months of ascents and having ended last July at the maximum of the year, very close to the level of 9,700 integers. Despite this month’s decrease, the main indicator of the Spanish market accumulates a revaluation of 15.52% so far this year.
The month, which is usually characterized by the low trading volume typical of the holiday period (on August 22, 69 million shares were traded and most sessions did not exceed 100 million), however, began with volatility and sharp declines due to the downgrading of the credit rating of the United States (454 million shares were traded that day and the selective fell more than 3% in two days) by the Fitch agency.
After that shaky start, the Ibex began a timid recovery that was affected by the Italian executive’s announcement on the 8th of a 40% tax on banks’ extraordinary profits, although the following day, in view of the shock in the bank securities, the Government backed down and limited the tax on extraordinary income to 0.1%.
Just in the middle of the month, when the index hit the monthly minimum slightly above 9,200 points due to doubts about China’s economy, the stock markets began a more determined upward trend that has allowed the Spanish market to reach 9,600 points. , although the decreases of this last session of the month have moved it away from that level.
In this second fortnight, the traditional meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole stood out, in which the representatives of these organizations claimed their commitment to tackling inflation that remains too high, in a clear ‘hawkish’ message.
However, given the cooling of macroeconomic and labor data in the United States, investors are beginning to chew more strongly on the idea of a new pause in interest rates by the United States Federal Reserve (Fed), which now stand at 5.5-5.75%.
The debate now centers between inflation and growth, according to Banca March experts: “the American labor market continues to show signs of slowdown” and inflation in Europe reflects that “we are leaving behind the best moment of energy as a negative contributor to inflation and each month underlying inflation will continue to be more relevant, which, as reflected in the August data in Spain and Germany, will be more difficult to overcome.”
In this context, the values with the worst monthly performance of the Ibex have been Mélia Hotels (-9.96%), ArcelorMittal (-6.65%), Sacyr (-5.34%), Grifols (-5.24%) and Cellnex (-5.04%); while Rovi (+20.36%), Mapfre (+3.44%), Fluidra (+3.18%) and Repsol (+2.63%) stood out in the advances.
As for the rest of the European indexes, Paris lost 2.42% in August; Milan 2.74%; Frankfurt 3.04% and London 3.3%.
On the other hand, the price of a barrel of Brent quality oil, a reference for the Old Continent, rose 1.4% in the month, to 86.61 dollars, while Texas stood at 82.27 dollars, a 1.17% more.
In the currency market, the price of the euro depreciated 1.44% against the dollar in August, to 1.0839 ‘greenbacks’, while in the debt market the interest on the ten-year Spanish bond It closed at 3.475%, three basis points less than at the end of July, while the risk premium (the spread with the German bond) remained at 101.6 points.
0.47% FALLS THIS THURSDAY AFTER THE INFLATION IN THE EUROZONE
The Ibex has ended this Thursday, the last session of the month, with a fall of 0.47%, after a negotiation in which the positive tone has predominated, which has led the selective to briefly exceed 9,600 integers, but in which the declines have ended up imposing in the last hour before closing due to the fall in banking values.
This day it has been known that inflation in the euro area has remained stable in August at 5.3%, with Spain and Belgium as the countries in the region with the lowest price increase, with rates of 2.4%.
By excluding the impact of energy from the calculation, the year-on-year inflation rate in the euro zone in August stood at 6.3%, compared to 6.7% the previous month, while also leaving out the impact of price For food, alcohol and tobacco, the core inflation rate eased to 5.3% from 5.5%, its lowest level since May.
The inflation data for France has also been released, which stood at 5.7% in the interannual rate in August, which means an increase compared to the July data of 5.1%.
Regarding the inflation data in Spain and Germany, Renta 4 analysts assess that they were “worse than expected”, since in Spain the general rate was 2.6%, compared to 2.3% in July, while in Germany it fell to 6.1%, a level that “despite its moderation” continues at “very high” levels.
On the other hand, the unemployment rate in the region stood at 6.4% last July, in line with the previous month and its lowest level in the entire historical series, while in the EU as a whole It also repeated the historical minimum of 5.9% for the third month.
Likewise, the minutes of the latest interest rate meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) published this Thursday have not anticipated any movement ahead of the mid-September meeting.
On the other side of the Atlantic, it has been revealed that PCE inflation in the United States in July has risen by three tenths, up to 3.3%, while core inflation has risen one tenth, up to 4.1%; data that was received with flat prices by the New York indices at closing time in Europe.
At the end of the session, the biggest increases in the Ibex 35 were registered by Rovi (+1.84%), Grifols (+1.24%), Colonial (+1.17%) and Merlín (0.92%). On the other hand, banking has registered the greatest falls: Sabadell has lost 5.02%, followed by Unicaja Banco (-3.68%), CaixaBank (-3.68%), Bankinter (-3.3% ) and BBVA (-1.73%).
As for the rest of the European selective, Milan has discounted this Thursday by 0.29%; London 0.46% and Paris 0.65%, while Frankfurt has added 0.35%.
SEPTEMBER OF CENTRAL BANKS
XTB analyst Adrián Hostaled has pointed out the ECB and Fed meetings scheduled, respectively, for September 14 and 19-20, as the central events of the month.
Hostaled considers that they have enough arguments on the table to, on the European side, be able to confirm the weakening of growth in the euro zone and, on the American side, the first symptoms of a contracting labor market.
“What we share on both sides of the Atlantic is a convergence of general inflation with underlying inflation but with figures higher than expected and, therefore, still worrying for central bankers,” which is why he points out that Markets could view further quarter-point interest rate hikes as possible.