The devaluation would hit social indicators hard, especially children

On September 27, INDEC will announce the poverty rate for the first half of this year, in the middle of the campaign for the general elections in October, and that according to estimates there would be an increase in the number of poor people.

Specialists agree that the data would be around 42% or 43%due to the acceleration of inflation, despite the low unemployment rate and the fact that economic activity during the period served as a spring for the indicator not to shoot up.

However, that was prior to the 22% devaluation of August 14, after the STEP. Which, among other things, would cause August and September inflation to be in the order of digits, and at the highest monthly values ​​since April 2002 or even since March 1991.

In this way, inflation would hit social indicators even more for the second half of 2023, in addition to the fact that the drought impact in measurements of economic activity. It remains to be seen how much the new measures related to the fixed sum and increase in social assistance could cushion.

Inflation through the roof: “September is a preamble to what December is going to be”

In this context, the UCA Social Debt observatory recently warned about the evolution of recent years.

In its estimation, with a different methodology from the one elaborated by INDEC, the UCA reflected that poverty reaches 38.9% of the populationa rate similar to that observed in 2006, that is, 17 years ago.

In this regard, it coincides with INDEC estimates that its last published measurement shows that poverty was 39.2% and indigence was 8.1% in the last six months of last year.

According to the poverty nowcast of the Torcuato Di Tella University (UTDT), which is based on EPH microdata, for the first semester of 2022 poverty was 43%, and in that case it would exceed the second semester of 2020, which gave 42% in the middle of the pandemic.

“The estimate of the poverty rate with the new 2004/2005 basket gives 43.8 in the first semester of 2006 (average between 44.5% in the first quarter and 43.1% in the second quarter) and in the second half of 2006 of 40% (average of 38.8% and 41.2%), that is, the highest figure since that time,” he explained. Martin Gonzalez Rozadaeconomist in charge of the UTDT nowcast.

In turn, returning to the data from the UCA report, the number of poor would climb to 50% without child allowance and other social plans.

In this sense, Ianina Tunonresearcher responsible for the Argentine Social Debt Barometer, assured: “The AUH, the IFE and the Alimentar Card managed to ensure that poverty did not skyrocket and remained stable in recent years.”

Another aspect that the report highlights is that the poverty rate is higher in the age group up to 17 years of age, at 61.6%.

According to an estimate by the consultant AnalyticsWhen the AUH started in 2009, it basically covered 80% of a child’s basic basket and today it reaches 26%.

This occurs alongside a drop in the unemployment rate and is what is new about this increase in poverty.

“It is a factor that contains, that prevents the increase in poverty from being greater. The situation of a fairly high aggregate demand for employment that is still maintaining a growth rate, although in recent months it has been declining,” said Agustín Salvia, head of the UCA Social Debt Observatory.

Specialists also warn of an increase in inequality.

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