Leaks of the so-called Pentagon Papers are confirming some of the worst fears raised around the Ukraine war. The course of the conflict could take an important turn if the information that several NATO countries already have elite troops on the ground helping the Ukrainian army is confirmed. The direct confrontation of the Western allies with Russia in the Ukraine would only be a matter of time.
The leaks, which appeared in the media and social networks, reveal secret information prepared between February and March, with real documents and modified texts. He United States Department of Defensewithin whom the leak originated, believes that the intelligence leak is authentic and the Department of Justice is already looking for culprits.
The special forces referred to in the document could be participating in the preparations for the expected Ukrainian spring counteroffensive, which would target Russian-occupied territories in eastern and southern Ukraine with the invasion launched on February 24, 2022, and which were subsequently annexed to the Russian Federation.
The Russians do not rule out that the counteroffensive will target the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions
Although the fighting is very intense in the Donbas area, in the east, especially in the Donetsk region, the Russians do not rule out that this counteroffensive is directed against the regions of Zaporizhia and Khersonin the south, to once again leave the peninsula isolated crimeaannexed by Russia in 2014.
One of the declassified papers indicates that Ukraine had plans to attack military bases and parking lots with drones within Russian territory itself, that is, far from the border with UkraineFor example, in the region of Rostov. The recent Russian decision to double the number of missile systems for anti-aircraft defense in the areas surrounding the border with Ukraine could support the authenticity of these now revealed documents.
The involvement of the West goes beyond weapons
The Pentagon leaks, as this spill of classified information is already called, leaves some disturbing questions in the air. What is the extent of Western involvement and the role of USA in the war? Is it Washington that dictates war strategies above kyiv? And another question, why is Washington spying on everyone, including his own allies?
One of the leaks points to the fact that the Volodimir Zelensky, was spied on, which says little about the confidence of the White House in the Ukrainian president. Zelensky should remember what happened in other countries where Washington it supported the local regimes politically and militarily and ended up abandoning them to their fate. From Vietnam to Afghanistan there are many examples in recent history.
They are, above all, British elite troops
The BBC began to spread that leak that troops from countries of the NATOespecially British, would already be in Ukraine fulfilling special missions. “This confirms what has been the subject of speculation for close to a year,” the cable noted: the presence of Western forces in Ukrainefighting, with command tasks or gathering intelligence.
According to the document, which is dated March 23, the United Kingdom would be the country with the most elite soldiers in Ukraine.
According to the document, which is dated March 23, it would be the United Kingdom the country with the most elite soldiers in Ukraine, fifty troops, followed by Latvia, with 17; France, another 15; The United States with 14 and the Netherlands with a soldier on the ground. In an ambiguous message posted on the social network Twitter, the British Ministry of Defense pointed out that this news had “a very serious level of inaccuracy”, while recommending “caution” to readers not to take it literally ” accusations” that “have the potential to spread misinformation.”
It is to be assumed that, almost a month later and with rumors about the Ukrainian counteroffensive abuzz, that number of troops is indeed inaccurate and may have increased substantially.
On a visit to Spain, the Ukrainian Defense Minister, Oleksii Reznikovhas also denied this Wednesday the presence of the NATO in his country. But doubts remain, because the United States itself claims that the documents are authentic. And there is a nuance. not the NATO the one that would operate in Ukraine, but soldiers from countries belonging to the Alliance.
The mission of this contingent is not specified nor what they would be doing, but it would be the first confirmation that the West is participating with men in the war and the umpteenth time that it has crossed red lines in this conflict, after sending heavy tanks, planes, missiles, anti-aircraft systems and billions of euros worth of ammunition from all over Europe, the US and even South Korea.
They are not mercenaries or volunteers who are in Ukraine to defend their democracy and sovereignty. They are, according to the leak, members of the armed forces of the aforementioned countries sent by their governments to fight or direct military operations in Ukraine.
Moscow had already said it: there are Western troops in Ukraine
The Kremlin has always been very blunt about it. He has been accusing NATO, the US and the countries of the European Union for months of trying to destroy Russia with this war (unleashed by Moscow) and with the sanctions derived from the invasion. Now, after learning about this possibility that points to the presence of NATO and US military in Ukrainehe Kremlin He boasts of having warned a long time ago that this was already happening and he knew it.
The Russian responses to the successive escalations of tension caused by the increase in the level of Western aid to Ukraine have for the moment been more dialectical than otherwise, although the confirmation of the deployment of forces from countries of the NATO it could certainly have other care.
The participation of Western commandos opens the range of pretexts for Russia to use non-conventional weapons
The participation of Western commandos in the war to carry out special operations or participate in the vanguard of a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive, for example, opens up the range of pretexts for Russia to use unconventional weapons in the conflict if it were doomed to defeat.
In March, Moscow announced that it would deploy tactical nuclear weapons to ally Belarus. The importance of this news does not lie only in the deployment of this weapon along the NATO borders, since USA It has many dozens of these bombs throughout the European territory.
What he was saying between the lines Kremlin it is that tactical nuclear weapons could be used in the event that things go awry and that Belarus is untouchable in the face of a possible Western attempt to overthrow the dictatorial president of this country, Alexander LukashenkoMoscow’s main ally among the ex-Soviet countries.
The leaks are already affecting the war
The leaks of Pentagon documents, which began to be made public in a massive way in the last week, have been considered by the US Administration as a breach “very serious” that puts the national security of the United States at stake, as indicated last Monday by the spokesman for the Department of Defense, Chris Meagher, who also acknowledged that it was “classified and sensitive” information.
And what seems evident is that the leaks are already having their effects on the war. Although the Government of kyiv has branded them as a ploy by Russian intelligence services, the Ukrainian military is reinforcing some of the weaknesses revealed by the revelations.
The documents have revealed very important deficiencies
One of the most important issues that the Pentagon papers have brought to the table is their assessment of the impending Ukrainian counteroffensive. The documents have revealed very important deficiencies, for example in the ammunition depots of the Ukrainian army, which could stop supplying missiles to the systems in mid-May. S-300 and other batteries that guarantee 80 percent of the Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense.
For this reason, Russia has qualified as “very interesting” some of the leaks and, although, on paper, Russian intelligence appears heavily infiltrated by American intelligence, at a tactical level the war information revealed could favor the invading army.
Leaks portend trouble for Ukraine’s counteroffensive
One of the most outstanding papers, classified as top secret, indicates that Ukraine could fall short in gathering enough troops and weapons for the spring counter-offensive, so that the objective of recovering a large part of the territories occupied by Russia would not be achieved. The counteroffensive, without sufficient impetus, would only succeed in securing “modest gains in territory,” according to the document.
In a document dated February 23 and to which the British newspaper was able to access The Guardian, it is indicated that twelve new brigades with 253 tanks and other 1,500 vehicles armored Of those twelve brigades, three would be run by Ukraine and the other nine would be formed with the support of the US and its allies. According to the report, five of the brigades had not begun essential training by that date, and six did not have even half the necessary equipment to engage in a large-scale offensive.
Under such circumstances, mistrust of USA about the success of the eventual counteroffensive. It would even seem logical that some countries have chosen to send their military “specialists” to the combat zone to guarantee that all the investment that the West has made in weapons and preparation of troops is not reduced to a mass of iron and dead.
All this information points in one direction. Ukraine They will not have many more opportunities beyond the aforementioned counteroffensive. He gambles everything with one shot. And with the Ukrainians, the Western countries that have supported Zelensky from the beginning of the conflict.
