Partisanship and Polarization: A Social Pandemic

A pandemic is an Pandemic that occurs throughout the world, or in a very large area, crosses international borders and usually affects a large number of people.

We are continuously exposed to rare but extreme events with great impact. Some come from abroad, such as pandemics or natural catastrophes. Others, such as polarization, are endogenous, linked to the intrinsic processes of our society.

Although there have been no major ideological shifts, there are unprecedented levels of political polarization worldwide. In stable and cohesive societies, conflicts balance each other. People have different opinions on one issue, but agree on another.

The increase in polarization is due to the alignment of differences and conflicts (social, economic, geographical and ideological). An intense negative emotional reaction towards “others” is developing. People increasingly perceive and describe politics and society in terms of “us” versus “them.”

polarized thinking

Polarization has become an instrument. Societies replace pragmatic politics, calculated risks, rational behaviour, tolerance and plurality with a kind of existential struggle. This struggle generates the need to protect the way of life against the “enemy” and makes identity, interests and attitudes associate. Partisanship becomes a social identity that helps align social divisions and conflicts. However, these identities are often just vehicles to push conflicting interests.

Once generated, polarization is reinforced and fed back through political and social incentives in a cascade effect, aided by the media, which amplifies polarizing messages. The consequence is the profound weakening of our institutions. That is why it makes sense to define it as a social pandemic.

People have different styles of thinking. They cause you to react differently to the same information. In a polarized context, a polarized style of thinking develops.

What does public opinion say?

The barometers of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) are monthly surveys to measure the state of public opinion. There are some fixed questions. One measures the opinion on the social situation in Spain, another the opinion on the economic situation of the country and a third assesses the personal economic situation.

The discrepancy between the assessment of the personal economic situation (good) and the economic situation of the country (bad) is usually highlighted. If the majority is doing well, how can the country be doing badly? The CIS barometer for February 2023 offers some clues.

As the image shows, there is a strong association between the assessment of the economic situation in Spain and the assessment of the social situation. There is another weakness between the assessment of the personal economic situation and the assessment of the economic situation of Spain. There is a moderate association between the assessment of the personal economic situation and that of the social situation.

People think of different things when they assess their personal situation and when they assess the situation of the country. In the first case they look at themselves. For this reason, the strongest association in the assessment of the personal situation is with the level of household income. In the second, they rely on the information that circulates. And the negative news predominates.

However, what is most interesting is the association with the variables that reflect ideological positioning.

There is a strong association between the assessment of the social and economic situation in Spain and which political leader is wanted as president. The blue rectangles in image 2 indicate that those who prefer Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) and Yolanda Díaz (Sumar) believe that the social and economic situation is good. The opposite occurs with those who prefer Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP), Santiago Abascal (Vox) or none of the aforementioned leaders.

In image 3 it can be seen that the more to the right on the scale of ideology, the worse the economic and social situation of Spain is valued. Also the personal economic situation, although the differences are less marked. Conversely, being on the far left is associated with a better rating.

Image 4 reflects the association between the assessment of the social situation and the assessment of political leaders.

A better assessment of the social situation is associated with a better assessment of left-wing politicians. A better assessment of right-wing politicians is associated with a worse assessment of the social situation.

The average assessment of right-wing politicians among those who rate the social situation poorly is lower than the average assessment of left-wing politicians among those who rate the social situation well. The more “removed” they are from the government or the opposition leadership, the less marked the association.

A similar effect is observed in image 5 regarding the assessment of the economic situation in Spain. And in image 6, on the assessment of the personal economic situation.

Image 6 does not include the assessment of Inés Arrimadas (Ciudadanos) because there is no association. The association with the valuation of politicians is obviously weaker. The effect is, once again, more pronounced when left-wing politicians are valued, especially Pedro Sánchez.

The assessment of the economic and social situation in Spain is clearly partisan. It depends on whether it is done from positions related to the Government or the opposition. The effect is more marked when direct reference is made to Pedro Sánchez. Possibly due to “anti-Sanchism”, a powerful rejection by those who sympathize with the opposition parties, which seems to be offset by those who seem to feel more ideological affinity.

It is especially striking that the partisan orientation is also reflected in the assessment of the personal economic situation, although this depends, above all, and as is logical, on the objective situation.