After a rise of $55 in the last four wheels, which meant an increase of 7.3%, the blue dollar closed yesterday at $800. It was a record in the stampede and in all the economic indicators that complicate the Government’s plans to deflate inflation in the final stretch towards the October elections.
Andrés Reschini, consultant at F2 Soluciones Financieras, explained to PERFIL that international and local factors influenced the rise in the North American currency.
“Internationally we have a strengthening dollar and higher risk-free rates, which encourages capital to exit riskier instruments and seek returns,” said Reschini.
And he added: “At the national level we have measures whose horizon does not exceed the electoral period and generate greater inflationary expectations, greater deterioration of the BCRA’s international reserve position and greater imbalances that must be addressed in the next administration. Faced with this scenario, the market runs to take refuge.”
For his part, Camilo Tiscornia, C&T economist, in dialogue with this medium, expressed that the movement in the markets was due to the “end of the soybean dollar and uncertainty about where the Government is going to get dollars in the short term, and fear for the longer-term elections, with fear because it is known that there will be a strong devaluation increasingly closer in time.”
This rise in the North American currency occurs 48 hours before the end of the month, where the Government is playing the game of drilling the CPI downwards, a new nominal record of the parallel currency adds more fuel to inflation, especially to basic basket products that affect the poorest sectors.
In turn, the gap with the official exchange rate, which was in the order of 128%, would imply that the post-PASO devaluation was left without competitive effects and an official dollar that in real terms is located at pre-primary election levels, but with a nominal value in higher inflation.
An alarming fact is the price in the squares of the provinces well above the ceiling that it reached in the city of Buenos Aires.
So far this year, the informal exchange rate has accumulated an increase of $454, that is, 131% compared to an inflation of 80.2% until August.
In the monthly accumulated, the blue registered an increase of $65 or 8.8%, below the estimated inflation for September, which would be above double digits again.
It is worth remembering that the blue dollar closed August strongly higher after the 20% devaluation. Thus, the exchange rate rose $185, or 33.6%, compared to a CPI that was 12.4% in the previous month, the most important monthly increase since April 2020, which was +41.3% .
On the other hand, another stock market indicator that was on the rise was country risk. The indicator prepared by JP Morgan rose to 2,523 basis points, after four consecutive days with increases.
While Argentine bonds and stocks on Wall Street were trading lower.
According to estimates by market operators, the BCRA had to increase its intervention above US$ 50 million to contain the fall of the bonds, which also impact the price of the MEP dollar.
Between January and August, the Government allocated more than US$2.2 billion to intervene in financial dollars.
The interventions of the monetary authority failed to cut the rise of financial institutions and the bonds in the Buenos Aires stock market closed lower. Due to the weakness of the reserves, yesterday it was extended until October 20, 48 hours before the general elections, the soy dollar 4.
