With the victory of the Minister of Economy Sergio Massa in the general elections, the economic-financial scenario was modified, consolidating the current economic policy, and reducing the possibilities of disruptive proposals such as dollarization and the closure of the Central Bank, according to a report by the consulting firm Equilibra. .
The result of the general elections confirmed that the official wholesale dollar will reach the ballot at around $350, which implies a real exchange rate at the minimum of Alberto Fernández’s management and alone 9% above the end of Cristina Kirchner’s second term.
Likewise, “when the ruling party went from point to bank, The probability of a sudden unification of the exchange rate that corrects the delay significantly decreases existing as we assumed at the beginning of Javier Milei’s administration,” indicated the consulting firm’s report.
According to a national survey, Massa would add voters from Schiaretti, the Left and Together for Change
This led to the dollarization fever subsiding and both the blue dollar and financial currencies to fall or remain stable.
For example, the CCL closed this Friday at $860 after reaching a peak of $1,110. Meanwhile, the blue dollar was quoted at $990 after having reached the $1,100.
Perspectives
On the other hand, according to Equilibra, despite the magnitude of the exchange rate appreciation, the failed experience of the post-STEP devaluation – the transfer to prices was so fast that in seven weeks the exchange gain from the 22% jump in the official dollar had evaporated. – suggests that Sergio Massa would try to correct it within a consistent economic plan to mitigate its inflationary impact.
“It is likely that the strategy will deepen the formal exchange rate split since this week a differential dollar scheme was extended to all exports with a settlement of 70% in the MULC and 30% in the CCL, which is equivalent to a price of almost $510,” the report stated.
“The continuity of the government would facilitate the transition, although an economy minister would have to be appointed to replace Massa and perhaps BCRA authorities, but the times are getting shorter,” he considered.
On the other hand, the Secretary of Economic Policy announced that in mid-November the crawling peg of the official dollar will resume a rate of 3% monthly that, with an inflation of at least 10% monthly, It would take the exchange rate delay to the 2015 lows at the beginning of a potential Massa presidency.
“The delay would only be relevant for imports that are paid to the official, but its correction is urgent since a summer is approaching with high debt maturities in hard currency (IMF and private) in a context of negative net reserves and few exports from the fine harvest, wheat production was once again affected due to lack of water,” said Equilibra.
L.D.
