Mañueco arrives at the campaign bound to lean on the extreme right to govern, according to the polls

Alfonso Fernández Mañueco is doomed to a change of partners if he wants to retain the Presidency of the Junta de Castilla y León on 13-F. According to the latest survey of Key Data for Publicat the start of the electoral campaign the PP would not reach an absolute majority and would have to rely on Vox to govern, since the extreme right would occupy the position of Ciudadanos as the third force in the territory.

The study gives the Conservatives an estimated vote of 37.3%, which would be worth around 37 seats (to four solicitors of the absolute majority). In these elections, the PP would regain the first position in the territory, a position they lost in the 2019 elections, when the PSOE won, although without a sufficient majority to govern.

Those from Mañueco would win seven seats compared to three years ago, when they managed to form a coalition government with Citizens being the second political force in Castilla y León.

According to Paz Álvarez, technical director of Key Data“when the official electoral campaign for the elections to the Cortes of Castilla y León is about to begin, the vote intention map seems to agree with Alfonso Fernández Mañueco. It will win the regional elections with more than 37% of the votes and 36 attorneys“.

Projection of votes and seats in the elections of Castilla y León. Key Data

Beyond the growth of the PP and the return to the first position of a party that has been governing this community for more than 30 years, the right-wing bloc is suffering change of scenery that had already begun in the Community of Madrid and that, most likely, it will spread to the entire territory when elections are held.

Ciudadanos is on the verge of institutional disappearance and is relegated to irrelevance, before a Vox that would occupy the third position in the regional parliament. In the 2019 elections, the extreme right had barely managed to break into Castilla y León, achieving only one prosecutor with an estimated 5.5% vote.

According to the study of Key Dataat the start of the campaign Vox’s vote estimate exceeds 13%, which would earn them around 10 seats. This change of scenario would force Mañueco to rely on the far-right formation to preside over the Executive of the autonomous community again.

“Ciudadanos practically disappears from parliament; it obtains the last seat for Valladolid, in close competition with Vox. The Popular Party will have to get the support of Vox, which is experiencing notable growth in an autonomous community where it was a very minority, thanks to the sharp decline in Citizens and those dissatisfied with the Popular Party,” says Álvarez.

In this sense, the technical director of Key Data He adds that “if the relationship of forces that is taking shape is consolidated, Mañueco would only need the abstention of Vox. He could govern alone with the punctual support of Santiago Abascal’s party”, although the extreme right has already advanced that he will ask to enter the Government.

Key Data Castile and León
Projection of votes and seats in the elections of 13-F in Castilla y León. Key Data

The PSOE is, after Cs, the political formation that loses the most in Castilla y León. Surveys indicate that those of Luis Tudanca they may lose most of the support achieved in 2019, when they were the first force with almost 35% of the votes and 35 seats.

According to this study, the Socialists would be the second force, they would lose around six points in votes (29.5%) and eight prosecutors (going to have 27 seats in the Cortes). The fall of the PSOE coincides at the beginning of the campaign with a slight reinforcement of United We Can. those of Paul Fernandez (who have fully entered the campaign with the controversy of the macro-farms and the hoax about Alberto Garzón) would exceed 7% of the votes and would win a seat, going from two to three attorneys.

In the demoscopic scenario that is drawn at the beginning of the campaign, the left would not have any chance of reaching the government. Also included in the study Key Data the expectations about the premiere of the matches of the so-called emptied Spain.

Even if Syria Now! would storm Parliament with some force (one or two seats), as would Xavila (one seat), the early election seems to have interrupted the consolidation of these movements, and no other party would obtain representation on 13-F.

“Soria, now! He bursts into parliament with force. He obtains one seat out of the five that Soria distributes and is close to achieving the second. XAvila also barely obtains the last seat in this constituency. The emptied Spain may have lacked time It presents a candidacy in five provinces: Burgos, Palencia, Valladolid, Salamanca and Soria, but at the moment it only gets representation in Soria,” explains Álvarez.

the historical UPL it would come out stronger in these elections and would manage to grow by 30% and double its representation in the courts (going from one to two attorneys).

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