Consultants estimated that the December CPI closed close to 30% and accumulated more than 200% in the year

Behind the November inflation of 12.8%December will mark, according to some private projections, a sharp jump of more than double in the Consumer Price Index data measured by the INDEC and which the organization will disseminate on Next January 11th.

In this way, private consultants estimated that 2023 ended with a cumulative increase of more than 200% in some prices, which marks a figure that is among the highest in the last 30 years. In relation to the reasons that have generated the high inflationary jump, the strong devaluation of the exchange rate appears, with which the Government of Javier Milei took the official dollar to around $850, as well as the “liberation” or “honesty” of prices.

January inflation: all services that are going to increase

As the Government itself admittedthese measures were going to cause a stampede of inflation, which will be reflected in the final data for December that the INDEC will soon release. although it will also continue in January. However, by the second month of the year, official dispatches expect it to begin to subside. In any case, January 2024 starts with several increases, including rates (bus tickets, subways), prepaid, among others, which will continue to pressure prices.

Milei’s end-of-year message and data from the consulting firms

In his end-of-year message, President JAvien Milei maintained that inflation, in recent weeks, reached 1.2% daily, “which annualized would imply around 7,500% annually.”

To measure the brutal price increases, the consulting firm Balance he pointed out: “since the ballot (from November 19) gasoline rose 92%, medicines 52%, cigarettes 37% and various products within the program Fair Prices between 40% and 60%”, Therefore, he estimated that the CPI for December will be 26%.

As Equilibra adds in its report, From January, other price increases that are overdue will be added, such as public transport and prepaid, with the consequent impact on the CPI for the first month of 2024.

“All these elements make us think that By the time classes start, the economy will have experienced a quarter with an average monthly inflation of around 25% (a total of almost 100% inflation in three months) and experienced a drop in the purchasing power of salaries of more than 10% in the formal segment and even greater in the informal segment,” the consulting firm considered.

While, Invecq projected a 22.8% increase in December, which would be the CPI highest overall monthly price in 33 years. “This extraordinary increase It is mainly explained by the increase in the official exchange rate (118%) and, to a lesser extent, by the gradual correction of some regulated prices. Inside, the dynamics of food stands out, whose price rose almost 34%.”

In 2023, the blue lost again against inflation

“Prices skyrocketed after the devaluation of 12/13 and increased 9.4% in just one week. Since then, the increase slowed down (although they have been growing at a rate of almost 30% monthly),” added the consultant, according to the Infobae portal.

He also warned that the outlook for the coming months “is not favorable either: the correction of relative prices, without an explicit nominal anchor, will strongly accelerate monthly inflation.”

Little variety of rice in supermarkets

For its part, Freedom and Progress projected a swas close to 29% and pointed out that in terms of the interannual variation, it was around 210%, so “we will close the year with an accumulated inflation of around 219%, the highest since 1990.”

Inflation, in full escalation: it would have peaks of 30% in December and January

For another consulting firm, LCG, the average increase“27.1% in the last four weeks and 36.1% end to end in the same period.”

To its turn, PxQ estimated that Inflation in the last month of 2023 will be 27.3%. And he pointed out that In February “the electricity and gas increases will come and, in March, it will be the turn of private schools”.

In all these cases, The corrections of the delays are partial – others will come later – and, in addition, they will be indexed monthly to the inflation of the previous month.

For the consultant, “with these planned increases, it is difficult to think that the exchange rate adjustment will remain at 2% monthly beyond January and, even more difficult, that salaries will not also begin to move with some adjustment formula. monthly that follows past inflation”.

L.R.

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