China bets on peace in Europe, but prepares for war in Asia

China has given the accolade at the annual meeting of his National People’s Assembly (ANP) to an increase in its arms spending that is apparently in dissonance with its pacifist position in the Ukraine crisis, but which responds to the arms race sponsored by the war and fanned in Asia by its main geopolitical rival, USA.

Although China is committed to a ceasefire in Ukraine put an end to the very serious international economic crisis resulting from the war, the Asian giant fears that the US pressure on Russia your great rival in Europe, exceed the limits of that war and reach the region of Pacific Asia, where the opponent of Washington is beijing and the bone of contention is the island of Taiwan.

According to the plans announced at this ANP meeting, China will increase your defense budget annual up to 210,000 million euros. The increase in Chinese military spending exceeds the expected GDP growth of the Asian giant in 2023, also noted in the ANP. This economic growth will be five percent for this year and will leave behind the three percent of 2022.

2027, an ominous date for Chinese military growth

Very important, and disturbing, has been the date given by the Chinese prime minister, Li Keqiang, as the horizon of this escalation in military spending. “With the focus placed on the objectives of the centenary in 2027 of the People’s Liberation Army, our armed forces should work to carry out military operations, boost combat readiness and enhance their military capability,” Li explained in his state of the nation address to lawmakers gathered at this annual PNA session that opened on Sunday.

That year 2027 is the date that various analysts and soldiers from USA have signaled the start of a large-scale war operation launched by China to secure the “liberation” of Taiwan, that is, the reincorporation into Chinese national territory of this rebellious island, de facto independent since 1949, when the communist red flag began to fly in Beijing.

taiwan It is not recognized by most of the member countries of the international community. not even for USA, which, however, has stood up for its defender and has pledged its military support in case China tries to recover the island by force.

China sees US footprint in Ukraine crisis

With this commitment to Chinese military reinforcement, the president Xi Jinping has in mind what is currently happening in Ukraine. In this country, not only is the russian invasion, in what could have been one more post-Soviet conflict, or a crusade by European countries for the right to sovereignty and democracy of a state on which attention was previously minimal, since it was always considered in the shadow of Moscow. In Ukraine At stake is the empowerment of the United States as a hegemonic power and its repercussions on the rest of the planet.

The diplomatic offensive of the US intelligence services and economic lobbies in Ukraine accelerated in early 2014, after the pro-Western revolution of the Maidan who overthrew the president Victor Yanukovich, too close to Russia. In March 2013, Xi Jinping had assumed the Chinese Presidency with a more combative spirit toward the United States than his immediate predecessors. It was time for Washington to start making moves for its new conception of the international security system without Russia and China as opponents.

And if already since 2014, Washington was insistently in favor of the entry of Ukraine in the NATO and to strengthen all possible ties with that ex-Soviet republic, the White House it has also accelerated its open support for Taiwan in the past decade. The visit last August to Taipei of the then president of the House of Representatives of the United States Congress, Nancy Pelosi, was the final straw for Chinese patience.

Xi Jinping pulls out the Ukrainian card and makes the US nervous

In this crisis in Ukraine, the Chinese power leadership has been able to see how far the involvement of the United States and its European allies can go in an armed conflict that could change international strategic stability. AND taiwan appears like that hot spot open between China and USA that could replicate the war in Ukraine in Asia.

The 12-point Chinese proposal to reach a ceasefire in Ukraine thus does not seem at odds with the Chinese militarist strategy in Asia. This peace plan wants to eliminate a source of tension that is irreversibly mistreating the World economy (also China) and, above all, focus the vision on the region that really matters most to the Chinese, but also to the Americans, Asia and the basin of the Peaceful.

The first US reaction to the plan was not direct. He just took advantage of the White House to accuse China to prepare the shipment of lethal weapons to Russia. beijing denied that supply and Washington, Although he still does not reveal the source of that information, he insists on keeping an eye on China.

Even the europeans have warned China, also without apparent evidence, about its “malicious” intentions to help Russia with weapons. They have come to prevent Peking from crossing that “Red line” and consider following Washington in imposing sanctions on China. All this while the head of community diplomacy, Josep Borrell, has no problem urging members of the European Union to allocate another 1,000 million euros this month for the joint purchase of weapons for Ukraine. Perhaps through the call European Peace Support Fund.

That is why it is not strange that, in this game with many decks and marked cards, China bet on Europe for a peace plan while Asia prepares for a possible war for Taiwan, which could take place in 2027, 2025 or even this year, according to the most ominous.

Taiwan denounces Chinese incursions by sea and air

This Monday the Minister Taiwanese from Defense, Chiu Kuo-cheng, announced that the island was on alert for the “sudden entry” of Chinese military units in areas surrounding its territory and included in its identification and air defense zone. All this, in the midst of an escalation of tension in the Taiwan Strait, which has been fueled by the numerous Chinese naval and air maneuvers in the area.

According to Chiu, he People’s Liberation Army sends a dozen planes or ships every day to areas close to Taiwan. He added that some of these units cross the median line that divides the Taiwan Strait into Chinese and Taiwanese areas of influence. This line, which does not recognize any treaty, is, however, the unofficial border between the two countries.

He Taiwanese Defense Minister issued another warning: his country’s military has been preparing to be “first to shoot” in case Chinese military units or devices (including drones and reconnaissance balloons) violate the Taipei consider your territorial space.

It is understandable the concern USA by the growing Chinese defense budget, a rise propped up by the PNA announcement. It is feared that this amount is even less than what is actually destined to keep the million operational men of his army together with his huge military machinery, and to buy new weapons, especially missiles.

The Americans insist, for example, that the 350 or 400 nuclear warheads that China now has could become 1,500 by 2035, that is, the same stock that Moscow or Washington now have.

The US defense budget is four times the Chinese one

It is not mentioned much that the US defense budget for fiscal year 2023 it will be 858,000 million dollars (about 803,000 million euros). This amount includes the items corresponding to the Support Ukraine and Taiwan.

In recent years and under the direction with an iron hand of Xi Jinping, China has tried to reduce that gap that exists with the United States, especially in the naval field. And although there are notable differences in terms of the type of weaponry – there are the 11 US aircraft carriers compared to the three Chinese – the Chinese achievements in the maritime defense they are impressive, scaring the neighbors a lot.

The ukrainian war has driven precisely this Chinese naval development, much more than Japan’s announcement last December that it will spend nearly 300,000 million euros over the next five years to improve its “self-defense forces” or the decision to South Korea to keep a good part of the weapons arsenals it manufactures.

China insists that it is the others who are participating in the arms race that is affecting half the world at the moment, from the Germany that has promised to reach 100,000 million euros in defense spending to the United States arms manufacturing companies, which work day and night to provide European countries with the weapons with which to supply the arsenals emptied in the “proxy” fight against Russia.

And always as a background, this war in Ukraine. Was Fumio Kishida, he japanese Prime Minister, who in Singapore, Last summer, he warned that he had a dire premonition that “what happens in Ukraine today could happen in East Asia tomorrow.”

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